Tools for Decision making

In Deciding how to decide

following are the tools mentioned.

  1. Monte Carlo simulations Here’s an example of Project Risk Management and the application of Monte Carlo Simulation
  2. Decision Analysis  Decision Analysis comes of age decision tree analysis,                   probabilistic forecasting  and multiattribute utility analysis
  3. Real options Valuation Professor Damodar’s notes on Real Options
  4. Information Markets 

Real options Valuation reminds me of a book I read a while ago

Decision Quality by Carl Spetzler 

Be on the lookout for his free course DQ 101: Introduction to Decision Quality

An Icecream Dream

A speaker like Dorie Clark was talking on stage. I was back stage. In the middle she looked towards me and started talking. I realised I was distracting the whole audience. But the speaker wanted to share some interesting news.

A place that sold novelty icecream. The storefront had gluedicecream shapes at the top.

And then my kids woke me up from the nap.

Little steps for big Leaps

Imagine Pogostick that can make you go in a big parabola. What is possible is small leaps and lots of fun.

If you come up with little ideas, go ahead put them in place and then you find that the next steps are obvious from that vantage point.

  1. If you can represent your company at an event. You will learn both about the company, host and other attendees.
  2. Attend lunch n learn sessions and learn about other functions at your own company for an alternate perspective. It is kind of tethered hot ballooning.
  3. Get on the cycle of continuous learning. Join a club like Toastmasters. You can learn new things and present them.
  4. Writing to other departments about new benchmarks in the industry. Find out where your company stands.

Opportunities are right there under your nose. Only they are cloaked as work. When you think of stretch work at office, you might wait for a formal process while organically you can make it happen with relationship building, finding out where help is needed. If you dont know all the answers, all the more reasons to take it up. You can build more relations finding answers for customers.

 

Big picture Vs Detail oriented

Today a friend asked about when to hold the Big picture mindset and when to go with the Detail oriented one? We know that they complement in a team. But how do you let the lack of other to have a positive effect instead of haunting you.

  1. Chalk it for a less rainy day
  2. Let it Challenge/prove its impact on your current style
  3. Have a map that shows when your scope has gone too far either way

A sign

This morning I saw a blue truck stopping at the shipping side of the company. Steelcase. It read. This morning’s headlines Ford CEO replaced by an erstwhile Steelcase Chief Executive.

I saw it for a brief minute enough to be taken in by the coincidence and to forge ahead.

This morning ride has revealed innovative but dangerous driving of cars buzzing each other, all while the regular traffic is moving on boringly. A guy overtook my car from the left side while I was in the left most lane at an intersection – road and rule bending.

Further ahead, I spotted another white car. Seemed like the blue car and white car were playing out a spat.

Saw  a company ad about an elephant on a chip ball and thought about a segway with a levitating base on a ball and some magnetic blocks holding the person straight.